Wednesday, October 18, 2017

11-1 or 9-3 more likely?

Second half of season is loaded with good QB's who can throw the football. Are the Irish really capable of running the table?

7 comments:

  1. This USC game is most important of Kelly's career? Ahhh ... that's a little bit of a stretch - don't you think?

    Going into OK undefeated as a heavy underdog in 2012 was a bigger game, and of course a NC game against Bama was easily the biggest game of his career.

    And as long as I am nitpicking ... ND as 3-4 point favorite does translate to their being even with USC on a neutral field. But in South Bend ... they are in fact ... a 3-4 point favorite. They are expected to win the game. PreSeason lines they were something around a 6-7 point underdog if I recall.

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    1. Read my reply below, but your correction on the spread is accurate, good catch. If I got paid to do this, we'd probably prep for each show. Ha! Thanks for listening though, and posting often. You make good points.

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  2. Of the teams currently in the top 25 Notre Dame has the toughest remaining schedule so if Notre Dame runs the table they will no doubt be in the playoffs. At the 12-minute Mark and the 21-minute mark of the podcast somebody was playing with a coffee cup or tapping on the table making distracting sounds, coincidentally it came at the same time Mike coffey was talking. Southern Cal is very fortunate they do not have two more losses on their schedule, they could have very easily lost to Texas and Utah. I see Notre Dame winning 38-31, with SC scoring 10 points late in the game to make the score close.

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  3. The key is the ND defense. Keep USC at 20 or less and it is a win period.

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  4. I appreciate the show, I really do. But starting off the show by calling this the biggest game of Kelly's career made me laugh out loud. There were, at minimum, four bigger games in 2012 alone. Brian Kelly had bigger games coaching at Cincy, at least with regard to how it would affect his career. *Maybe* tone down the hyperbole a bit.

    Also, the title of the pod is of course a silly question, as it seem you all recognize. 11-1 is unquestionably a lot less likely than 9-3, and in reality is a lot less likely than 8-4. S&P+ gives ND a 35% chance of going 9-3 and only a 6% chance of 11-1 - see here: https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-notre-dame-advanced-statistical-profile. It thinks we're more likely to go 7-5 than 11-1 (9% vs. 6%), which I think is questionable, but 11-1 is correctly viewed as far less likely than anything above that.

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    1. The intent of the title was to suggest are we trending toward 11-1 or 9-3? I guess I could've said 11-1 or 7-5, but that would've been idiotic since anyone who has paid attention to this team would lean toward 11-1. There's absolutely no way we go 7-5 unless major injuries occur. 11-1 is unlikely, I get that, but it's doable. I wouldn't think it was some sort of fluke especially if we continue to run the football and play defense like we have all season.

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  5. I guess my sense of humor needs some work, or at least I shouldn't assume people have listened to multiple episodes. Calling it the "biggest game of Brian Kelly's career" is kind of a running joke, hence the reason Coffey or Ed didn't call me out on it. I've probably said that 10 times over the last 3 seasons. I'll be more careful in the future. :)

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